Price gains for all property segments in the DC Metro area

Mild increase in contract activity

OVERVIEW

The November performance of the Washington DC Metro Area housing market continued to follow the patterns seen through most of 2014. Closed sales decreased 1.0 percent from November 2013. While this is a milder increase than in prior months, housing performance in November 2013 was affected by the shutdown of the Federal government in October 2013. Between November 2013 and November 2014, the region’s decrease in closed sales was driven by three jurisdictions: Alexandria City (-11.9 percent), Fairfax County (-9.2 percent) and Montgomery County (-2.3 percent). For the region as a whole, not all property segments had fewer closed sales than last year, and single-family detached home sales increased by 6.3 percent.

The number of contracts signed in November also increased from 2013, rising 1.2 percent. This is the first year-over-year increase for new pending contracts in 12 months and may indicate relatively better performance next month. Active listings continue to rise, but new listings decreased from the prior year for the first time in nine months. All property segments had fewer new listings than last year. The median sales price increased by 1.3 percent, driven by increases in condo properties (+6.0 percent) and townhomes (+0.6 percent). The median sales price of single-family detached homes decreased slightly, by 0.1 percent.

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CLOSED SALES

Decrease in total closes sales from last year; increase for single-family homes. In the Washington DC Metro, there were 3,036 closed sales in November. Closed sales decreased 1.0 percent, or by 32 sales, marking the 11^th month in a row of year-over-year declines. However, single-family detached home sales increased 6.3 percent, or by 88 sales, from this time last year. This is the first year-over-year increase for the property segment since December 2013, though it was the only property segment to increase. The number of closed sales of condo properties decreased 4.5 percent, or by 39 sales. Townhomes had the sharpest decrease in closed sales and fell 10.4 percent, or by 84 sales from last year. As compared to last month, the number of sales decreased 19.8 percent, which is a sharper decline than the 10-year average October-to-November change of -6.0 percent.

PRICES

Increase in median sales price for all property segments; highest November-level overall median sales price in eight years. As compared to last year, the median sales price for the region rose 1.3 percent to $405,000. This is the highest November-level since 2006, when the median sales price was also $405,000. Condo properties had the highest growth, rising 6.0 percent. Townhomes had a median sales price that was 0.6 percent higher than last year. The median sales price for single-family detached homes decreased 0.1 percent, or by $500, from last year.

Of the jurisdictions, Arlington County had the highest growth in median sale price and rose 18.4 percent from November 2013. Three jurisdictions had year-over-year decreases in median sales price: Falls Church City (-4.0), Alexandria City (-3.2 percent) and Montgomery County (-1.0 percent).

NEW CONTRACTS

First year-over-year increase since 2013; driven by single-family detached homes and townhomes. There were 3,899 new contracts signed in November, which is 1.2 percent more than last year. This is the first year-over-year increase for new contracts since last November. Of the property segments, only condo properties had fewer contracts, though it was only one contract short of last November’s total. The number of new contracts for townhomes increased 0.5 percent. New contracts for single-family detached homes drove the majority of the growth and rose 2.2 percent. From last month, new contracts decreased 12.3 percent, which is in line with the ten-year average October-to-November change of -13.0 percent.

INVENTORY

First year-over-year dip in new listings in nine months; though inventory remains higher than last year.  Active listings reached their highest November-total since 2011.  There were 10,017 active listings month’s end, which is 21.0 percent more than this time last year.  Active listings have now increased from the prior year for 14 months in a row but are 61.3 percent lower than their 2007 peak.  Active listings for townhomes had the largest growth from last year, rising 29.5 percent.  Active listings for condo properties rose 23.9 percent from last year.  There were 5,461 active listings for single-family detached homes, 17.1 percent more than this time last year.

New listings decreased from the prior year for the first time since February 2014, falling 5.1 percent compared to the number listed last November.  New listings decreased for all property segments.  New listings of single-family detached homes had the sharpest decline, falling 7.8 percent.  New listings for townhomes decreased 3.3 percent and new listings for condo properties decreased 2.3 percent.  At 28 days, the median days-on-market increased by eight days from November 2013.  Despite the increase, it remains lower than the 10-year average November-level of 38 days.

About the RBI Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in RBI’s proprietary database. The bulk of this report’s content is readily available, down to the subdivision level, via interactive charts and reports offered via SmartCharts Pro, a premium service offered to real estate professionals interested in growing their business with the help of industry-leading analytics. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. 

About RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC

RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC (RBI) is a primary source of real estate data, analytics and business intelligence for real estate professionals with business interests in the Mid-Atlantic region. The full monthly data report for all jurisdictions in the MRIS region, along with interactive charts and graphics, can be found at www.getsmartcharts.com.

About the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University

The Center for Regional Analysis conducts research and analytical studies on economic, fiscal, demographic, housing, and social and policy issues related to the current and future growth of the Virginia, Maryland, and DC areas. Through its range of research and programs — major economic impact studies, economic forecasts, fiscal analyses, conferences and seminars, publications, information services, and data products — the Center’s activities strengthen decision-making by businesses, governments, and institutions throughout the Greater Washington region.  Visit http://cra.gmu.edu to learn more.