DC Metro seller's market remains tight in August as prices continue to gain over 2016 levels

Posted on September 12, 2017 by Corey Hart
12

Sep

2017

Washington D.C. Metro median price of $430,000 at August decade high; pending and closed sales are at or near August decade highs; inventories decline for 16th consecutive month

Rockville, MD – (September 12, 2017) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on August 2017 Bright MLS housing data.

Click here for PDF version of this report

OVERVIEW

  • The Washington D.C. Metro median sales price of $430,000 was up 2.2% or $9,250 compared to last year but was down 2.3% or $9,900 compared to last month.  This is the highest August price of the decade.
  • Sales volume across the DC Metro area was over $2.6 billion, up a slight 0.1% from last year.
  • Closed sales of 5,073 were down 0.3% compared to last year and down 1.6% compared to last month.
  • New contract activity of 4,965 was up 1.2% compared to last year.
  • New listings of 5,894 were up 7.2% compared to last year but were down 6.2% from last month.
  • Active listings of 9,855 are down 4.4% compared to last year and down 4.1% compared to last month. This is the 16th consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels.
  • The average percent of original list price received at sale in August was 97.8%.
  • The median days-on-market for August 2017 was 18 days, four days lower than last year.


 

  • August’s regional median sales price rose 2.2% to $430,000, an increase of $9,250 compared to last year, but down 2.3% or $9,900 compared to last month.  This is the 11th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
  • Compared to last year, townhome prices increased 2.6% to $414,250, single-family detached home prices increased 2.1% to $539,900 and condo prices rose 1.0% to $295,000. 
  • August prices are above the 5-year average of $418,350, and the 10-year average of $389,975.
  • The overall regional price of $430,000 is 25.7% above the August 2009 low of $342,000.
  • Falls Church City remains the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $807,750, up 1.1% from last year. 
  • Prince George’s County is still the most affordable area in the region, with a median sales price of $275,000, a 6.9% increase over last year. 
  • For the year to date, the regional median sales price is up 3.1% to $430,000 compared to the same period of 2016.  Prince George’s County has the highest year-to-date price appreciation, up 10.0%.


 

  • Closed sales of 5,073 were down 0.3% from last year and down 1.6% from last month.
  • Compared to last year, condo sales were up 3.3% to 1,365 and single-family detached sales were up 1.3% to 2,447.  Townhome sales were down 6.7% to 1,260.
  • Sales remain above both the 5-year average of 4,697 and the 10-year average of 4,324.
  • August’s closed sales were 34.3% above the market low of 3,776 seen in August 2008, but were down 0.3% from last year’s peak of 5,089.
  • Sales activity across the region was mixed, with the largest gain in Fairfax City (+26.5% or 9 sales) and the largest decline in Montgomery County ( -6.9% or 88 sales). 
  • For the year-to-date, most jurisdictions still show gains in sales, with the largest percentage gain in Fairfax City (+35.4% or 79 sales).  Only Montgomery County saw a decline in closed sales of 3.  Across the region, year-to-date sales are up 4.8% to 38,491.


 

  • New pending sales of 4,965 were up 1.2% compared to last year’s previous August high of 4,907, but were down 3.0% compared to last month.
  • Condo pending sales increased 5.9% to 1,364 and townhome pending sales increased 3.4% to 1,337.  New pending sales of single-family detached homes were down 2.6% to 2,263.
  • Pending sales remain above the 5-year average of 4,677 and the 10-year average of 4,295.
  • August’s new pending sales were 46.9% more than the August 2008 low of 3,381.
  • Pending sales activity across the region was also mixed, with the largest percentage increase in Fairfax City, which was up from 43 new pending sales to 72 (+67.4%).  The largest decrease was in Arlington County, where they dropped 2.1% to 236.
  • For the year-to-date, regional new pending sales of 44,482 are up 0.9% compared to last year.


 

  • August’s 5,894 new listings were up 7.2% from last year but down 6.2% from last month.     
  • Compared to last year, new townhome listings were up 12.1% to 1,519, new condo listings were up 10.3% to 1,592 and single-family listings were up 3.0% to 2,781.
  • New listings are slightly above both the 5-year average of 5,589 and the 10-year average of 5,448. 
  • August new listings are 23.6% above the 10-year low of 4,769 seen in August 2012, and are just 2.5% below the 2008 high of 6,044.
  • Across the region, Falls Church City saw the only percentage decrease in new listings (-4.8% to 20).  The largest percentage increase was in Fairfax City (+83.7% to 79 listings).
  • For the year to date, new listings across the entire DC Metro of 54,452 are up 2.1% compared to last year.


 

  • There were 9,855 active listings at the end of August, down 4.4% compared to last year and down 4.1% compared to last month.  Inventory levels have declined for 16 consecutive months.
  • All property types showed decreases in inventory levels over last year, with condo inventories down 8.9% to 2,413, single-family detached inventories down 3.2% to 5,555, and townhome inventories down 1.4% to 1,879.
  • Inventories are below both the 5-year average of 10,393, and the 10-year average of 13,085.
  • August inventory levels exceed the 2013 low of 8,301 by 18.7%, but are down 58.6% from the peak of 23,819 seen in August 2008.
  • Across the region, inventory levels showed the largest gain in Prince George’s County, increasing 4.6% to 1,947.  The largest percentage decline was in Fairfax County (-9.5% to 3,106).


 

  • The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for August was 97.8%, up from last year’s 97.5%, but down from last month’s 98.3%. 
  • Townhomes have the highest August SP to OLP ratio of 98.5%.  Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.6 and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.5%.
  • August’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 97.6% and the 10-year average of 95.9%.
  • Over the last decade, the lowest August average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2008, where it was 93.0%, and the decade’s high was August 2013, where it was 98.2%.
  • Fairfax City had the highest regional SP to OLP ratio of 99.6%, up from last year’s 98.1%.
  • The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Montgomery County, where the average ratio was 97.3%, up from last year’s 97.0%.
  • For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 98.2%, higher than last year’s 97.6%.


 

  • The median days-on-market (DOM) in August was 18 days, down from 22 days last year but up four days from last month.
  • Townhomes have a median DOM of 12, while condos have a median DOM of 18, and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 22.
  • August’s median DOM was two days below the 5-year average of 20 days and 11 days below the 10-year average of 29 days.
  • This month’s median DOM of 18 is the second-lowest August level in a decade (the lowest was 14 days in 2013).  The highest August median DOM of the last 10 years was 59 days in 2008.
  • The highest median DOM in the region in August was in Arlington County where it was 22 days, the same as last year. 
  • Fairfax City has the lowest median DOM of 8 days, down from 18 days last year.
  • For the year-to-date, the overall regional median DOM is 14 days, down from 20 days last year.


 

About the DC Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available atwww.econ70.com.

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