DC area home sales top 2015 levels by 16.5 percent in November

Posted on December 12, 2016 by Corey Hart
12

Dec

2016

Median sales price of $407,000 is highest level since 2005; Sales at best November level since 2009; Inventory levels show double-digit declines for fifth consecutive month

Rockville, MD – (November 12, 2016) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on November 2016 MRIS housing data.

Click here to view PDF version of this report

OVERVIEW

  • November 2016’s median sales price of $407,000 was up $2,000 or 0.5% compared to last year.  This is the highest November median sales price since 2005.
  • Sales volume across the DC Metro area was nearly $2 billion, up 14.4% from last November.
  • Closed sales of 3,899 were up 16.5% compared to last year, the highest November since 2009.
  • New contracts decreased by 0.7% to 4,157, just slightly below last November’s record 4,186.
  • New listings of 4,264 increased 7.1% year-over-year, up for the first time in five months.
  • Active listings of 9,147 are down 14.4% compared to last year and down 12.0% compared to last month. This is the seventh consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels.
  • The average percent of original list price received at sale in November was 97.2%, up from last year’s 96.9% but down from last month’s 97.4%.
  • The median days-on-market for November 2016 was 23 days, two days lower than last year.


 

  • November’s regional median sales price rose to $407,000, the highest November level this decade, and a 0.5% or $2,000 increase over last year.  Prices were 1.8% higher than last month. 
  • This month, only single-family detached prices rose, increasing 0.8% to $489,000.  Prices for townhomes decreased 1.7% to $400,000 and condos decreased 1.6% to $286,375. 
  • Prices are above the 5-year average of $397,390 and the 10-year November average of $369,880.
  • The November median price for the region is 27% above the November 2009 low of $320,500.
  • Washington D.C. surpassed Falls Church City as the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $549,000, 0.2% more than last year.  Prince George’s County remains the most affordable area in the region, with a November median sales price of $260,000, up 8.4% from last November. 
  • The year-to-date regional median sales price is up 0.7% to $415,000.  Prince George’s County (+8.5%) and Washington D.C. (+4.0%) lead the region in year-to-date price growth. Arlington County (-1.9%) and Alexandria City (-1.0%) are the only jurisdictions to see declines in year-to-date prices versus 2015.


 

  • November’s closed sales of 3,899 were up 16.5% from last year, but down 1.8% from last month.  This is the fourth consecutive month of increases in year-over-year sales.
  • All property types saw double-digit increases in sales, with condos up 19.4% to 1,064, townhome sales up 17.0% to 1,066, and single-family detached sales up 14.6% to 1,769.
  • Sales were above the 5-year average of 3,381 and above the 10-year average of 3,217.
  • November’s closed sales were up 62.1% compared to the market low of 2,406 seen in November 2008 and 3.5% less than the previous November 2009 high of 4,040.
  • Sales growth was very strong in all jurisdictions except Falls Church City.
  • Across the region, year-to-date sales of 49,287 in the D.C. Metro area are up 6.9%.


 

  • The 4,157 new pending sales in November 2016 were down 0.7% compared to last year and down 14.5% from last month. 
  • While condos saw a 9.1% decline in pending sales to 1,013, townhome pending sales increased 5.1% to 1,150 and single-family detached homes were up 0.9% to 1,994.
  • Pending contracts were above both the 5-year average of 3,966 and the 10-year average of 3,516.
  • November 2016’s new pending sales were 72.3 % above the November 2007 low of 2,413 and just slightly below the peak of 4,186 seen last year.
  • Pending sales activity across the region is mixed, with Montgomery County (-7.5%) and Washington D.C. (-7.8%) seeing declines in pending sales.
  • For the entire region, new pending contracts for January-November are up 3.3% to 58,156.


 

  • There were 4,264 new listings in November, a 7.1% increase over last year.  This was the first time in five months that year-over-year new listings increased. Compared to last month, new listings saw a normal seasonal decline of 21.0%.
  • All property types saw increases in the number of new listings, with townhomes up 8.7% to 1,059, single-family detached up 7.1% to 2,009, and condos up 5.7% to 1,195.
  • New listings are above both the 5-year average of 3,853 and the 10-year average of 4,171. 
  • November new listings are 24.4% above the 10-year low of 3,428 seen in November 2012 and 25.2% below the November 2007 high of 5,703.
  • Across the DC Metro area, the 69,937 cumulative new listings added through November are down 0.8% from last year.


 

  • Active inventories decreased 14.4% versus last year to 9,147, which was also down 12.0% from last month.
  • All property types show double-digit decreases in inventory levels over last year, with townhome inventories down 20.5% to 1,659, single-family detached inventories down 13.6% to 4,949 and condos down 11.2% to 2,531.
  • Inventories are just slightly below the 5-year average of 9,190, but well below the 10-year average of 13,427.
  • November inventories exceed the 2012 low of 7,830 by 16.8%, but are down 62.3% from the peak of 24,237 seen in November 2007.
  • Falls Church City (+33.3%) and Washington D.C (+3.0) saw increases in inventory levels, while all other jurisdictions saw declines, with the largest in Fairfax County (-20.1%).


 

  • The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for November was 97.2%, up from last year’s 96.9% but down from last month’s 97.4%.
  • November’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 97.0% and the 10-year average of 95.2%
  • Over the last decade, the region’s November average sales price to original listing price ratio ranged from a low of 90.9% in 2008 to a high of 97.5% in 2013.
  • On average, homes in Falls Church City sold at 98.6% of their original listing price in November, the highest in the region, and down slightly from the 98.9% seen last year.
  • The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Fairfax City, where the average ratio was 94.7%, down from last year’s 95.7%
  • Year-to-date, the SP to OLP ratio for the region is 97.6%, up slightly from the cumulative SP to OLP of 97.3% through November last year.


 

  • The median days-on-market in November was 23 days, down two days from last year and the same as last month.
  • Single-family detached homes had the highest median DOM of 26, while condos had a median DOM of 24 and townhomes had a median DOM of 18.
  • November’s median DOM was one day below the 5-year average of 24 days, but was well below the 10-year average of 35 days.
  • The lowest November DOM recorded in the past decade was 20 days in 2013; the highest was 65 days in 2008.
  • Regionally, the highest median DOM in November was recorded in Fairfax City at 32 days, down from 52 last year. 
  • The lowest median DOM is in Falls Church City at 9 days, down from 14 days last year.
  • For the year-to-date, the regional median DOM is 21 days, the same as last year.

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About the DC Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia.  Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from MRIS.

About MRIS

MRIS is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visitor MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com

dc metro, market analysis, press release
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