DC area home prices hit highest monthly level on record in May

Posted on June 12, 2018 by Corey Hart
12

Jun

2018

Inventories decline for 25th consecutive month. Half of homes sold were on market 9 days or fewer

Rockville, MD – (June 12, 2018) – The following analysis of the Washington, D.C. Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on May 2018 Bright MLS housing data.

Click here to view PDF version of this report

OVERVIEW

  • The Washington D.C. Metro May median sales price of $465,000 was at the highest monthly level of the decade, rising1.1% or $5,000 compared to last year and up 3.3% or $15,000 compared to last month.
  • Sales volume across the DC Metro area was more than $3.2 billion, up 4.8% from last year.
  • Closed sales of 5,720 were up 1.8% compared to last year and at the highest May level of the decade, while new contracts of 6,487 were down 2.7% compared to last year.
  • The 8,326 new listings in May were up 3.0% compared to last year and were at the highest May level of the decade.
  • Active listings of 9,391 are down 4.8% compared to last year, marking the 25th consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels.
  • The average percent of original list price received at sale in May was 99.0%, the same as last month, but up from last year’s 98.8% and at the highest May level of the decade.
  • The median days-on-market this month was nine days, down one day from last year and the same as last month.


 

  • May’s regional median sales price of $465,000 increased 1.1% or $5,000 compared to last year and rose 3.3% or $15,000 compared to last month.  This is the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases and was the highest monthly median sales price of the last 10 years.
  • Compared to last year, single-family detached home prices increased 4.4% to $600,000, condo prices rose 2.9% to $320,000, and townhome prices increased 1.1% to $440,000.
  • May prices are above the 5-year average of $444,000 and the 10-year average of $407,766.
  • The regional median sales price of $465,000 is 36.1% higher than the market low of $341,750 seen in 2010.  Prior to this year, the highest May and monthly price of the last ten years was last May's $460,000.
  • Falls Church City was again the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $619,000, which is down 25.3% from last year.
  • Prince George’s County is still the most affordable area, with a median sales price of $290,500, a 5.6% increase over last year. 
  • For the year-to-date, prices are up 2.5% across the DC metro area to $435,690.


 

  • There were 5,720 closed sales in May, up 1.8% from last year and up 18.3% from last month. 
  • While sales of single-family detached homes were down 2.7% to 2,683, townhome sales were up 8.9% to 1,531 and condos were up 3.4% to 1,504.
  • Sales were well above both the 5-year average of 5,232 and the 10-year average of 4,825.
  • May’s closed sales were 48.8% above the May 2009 market low of 3,845.  The prior May high was last year’s 5,620.
  • Closed sales increased in Fairfax City (+23.8% to 52), Prince George’s County (+8.1% to 998), in Montgomery County (+5.5% to 1,314), in Alexandria City (+2.9% to 289) and in Washington D.C. (+2.6% to 949).   Sales declined in Fairfax County (-2.4% to 1,774), in Arlington County (-9.0% to 325) and in Falls Church City, (-34.5% to 19).
  • For the DC metro area for the year-to-date, sales of 21,400 are down 0.1%.  


 

  • There were 6,487 new pending sales in May, down 2.7% from last year but up 0.7% from last month.
  • Pending sales of townhomes were up 0.2% to 1,692, while new pending condo sales were down 2.7% to 1,630 and new pending sales of single-family detached homes were down 4.2% to 3,165.   
  • Pending sales are above the 5-year average of 6,276 and the 10-year average of 5,700.
  • New pending sales this month were 68.5% more than the May 2010 low of 3,849 and were 2.7% below the 2017 peak of 6,668.
  • Pending sales activity across the region was generally down, with Falls Church City (+6.7% to 32) and Arlington County (+2.9% to 355) showing the only increases.  Montgomery County had the smallest decrease (-1.2% to 1,518) and Fairfax City had the largest (-20.8% to 42).    


 

  • There were 8,326 new listings this month, up 3.0% from last year and up 0.1% from last month. 
  • Compared to last year, new townhome listings were up 5.2% to 2,014, new condo listings were up 3.7% to 2,194 and new single-family listings were up 1.5% to 4,115.
  • New listings are above the 5-year average of 8,022 and the 10-year average of 7,258. 
  • May new listings are 38.9% above the 10-year low of 5,996 seen in May 2010 and are 0.6% above the prior peak of 8,275 seen in May 2015.
  • New listings were generally up across the region, with the largest percentage increase in new listings in Fairfax City (+20.4% to 59) and the smallest in Fairfax County (+1.6% to 2,664).  Montgomery County was the only area with a decline (-1.6% to 1,901). 
  • For the year to date, new listings of 33,991 are down 0.7% compared to last year.


 

  • There were 9,391 active listings at the end of May, down 4.8% compared to last year, but up 8.5% compared to last month.  
  • Compared to last year, single-family detached inventories were down 7.1% to 5,191, condo inventories were down 3.1% to 2,475, and townhome inventories were down 0.2% to 1,710.
  • Inventories are well below both the 5-year average of 10,575 and the 10-year average of 12,123.
  • May inventory levels exceed the 2013 low of 7,999 by 17.4% and are down 48.9% from the peak of 18,366 seen in May 2009.
  • Fairfax City (+33.9% to 79), Falls Church City, (+25.9% to 34), Prince George’s County (+7.3% to 1,741), Washington D.C. (+6.5% to 1,466) and Alexandria City (+1.8% to 457) all saw increases in inventory levels.  Arlington County (-4.7% to 524), Montgomery County (-6.7% to 2,394) and Fairfax County (-16.1% to 2,696) all saw declines.


 

  • The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for May was 99.0%, up from last year’s 98.8%, and the same as last month. 
  • Townhomes have the highest May SP to OLP ratio of 99.7%.  Single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 98.9%, while condos are at 98.6%.
  • May’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 98.6% and the 10-year average of 97.0%.
  • Over the last decade, the lowest May average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2009, when it was 91.9%.  Prior to this year, the highest May level of the last ten years was last year’s 98.8%.
  • Washington D.C. had the highest SP to OLP ratio of 99.6%, the same as last year.
  • Prince George’s County, which usually has the lowest regional SP to OLP ratio, instead had the third highest ratio in the region, 99.1%, up from last year’s 98.9%.
  • Fairfax City has the lowest SP to OLP ratio in the region this month at 98.2%, down from last year’s 98.4%.


 

  • May’s median days-on-market (DOM) was nine days, down one day from last year and the same as last month.  This matched the lowest median DOM of the last ten years.
  • Townhomes have a median DOM of seven, while single-family detached homes have a median DOM of nine and condos have a median DOM of ten.
  • May’s median DOM was two days below the 5-year average of 11 days and eight days below the 10-year average of 17 days.
  • In May 2013, median DOM was also at nine days, the lowest May and overall level of the decade.  The highest May median DOM of the last 10 years was 45 days in 2009.
  • The highest median DOM in the region in May was in Prince George’s County, where it was 14 days, the same as last year. 
  • Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County and Falls Church City all saw median DOMs of seven days.
  • For the year-to-date and across the entire D.C. metro, median DOM is at 13 days, down from 15.


 

About the DC Metro Housing Market Update

The DC Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The DC Metro Area housing market includes: Washington, D.C., Montgomery County and Prince George’s County in Maryland, and Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church City in Virginia. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.

 

dc metro, market analysis, press release
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