Baltimore Metro home sales surged in 2015 while prices remained flat

Home sales up 19% from 2014; Median prices flat at $240,000 for third straight year

Rockville, MD – (January 13, 2016) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) and is based on year-end 2015 MRIS housing data.

OVERVIEW

• Baltimore Metro area median sales prices showed very little movement over the course of 2015, with year-over-year price changes varying from a high of 2.0 percent in August to a low of -4.2% in April. Ultimately the median sales price of $240,000 was unchanged from 2014 levels and less than a percent off the 2013 median.
• Sales in 2015 were very strong, with double-digit year-over-year increases every single month and ending the year up 18.8 percent compared to 2014.
• The number of new listings rose consistently over the year, ending up 8.5 percent higher than 2014’s tally. There has been annual growth in new listings every month since April 2013.
• Active listings showed the strongest growth in the first quarter of 2015, slowing by mid-year, before declining over the last four months of 2015, ending with an overall decline of 2.6 percent.
• Median days on market for 2015 were 43 days, up one day from 2014, but below both the 5 and 10-year averages of 51 and 56 days, respectively.
• 2015 data for the Baltimore City suggest a weaker market than the rest of the region. It was the only jurisdiction with supply gains, had the largest pricing decline and the lowest sales growth versus 2014.

Click here to view PDF version of the year-end report

• The regional median price for 2015 of $240,000 is unchanged from last year.
• Prices remained 9.1 percent above the 2011 bottom, but 12.1% below the peak of 2007.
• Howard County saw the highest annual appreciation from 2014 at +1.7 percent and remains the most expensive location with a median sales price of $396,750. 
• Baltimore City is the most affordable area in the region, with prices declined 4.4 percent to a 2015 median of $110,000. 
• The counties of Harford and Howard were the only areas with annual price increases, gaining 1.3 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.

• Overall 2015 sales volume of 35,960 units was up 18.8 percent compared to 2014.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed impressive double-digit gains in the number of sales in 2015 compared to 2014.
• The closed sales tally in 2015 was up 58.3 percent compared to the 10-year market low of 22,719 seen in 2008, and only 5.3 percent below the 2006 peak total of 37,957 annual sales.
• With 9,974 sales, a 19.8 percent annual gain, Baltimore County had the highest number of closed sales in the region.
• Harford County saw the largest percentage increase in sales volume, where its 3,442 sales marked a 27.2% increase over 2014.

• The 56,007 total new listings added in 2015 in the Baltimore Metro area marked an 8.5 percent gain from the 2014 cumulative total.
• The number of new listings in 2015 was up 39.5% compared to the market low in 2012, but missed the 2006 high by 15.7 percent.
• The new listing total was 18.7 percent above the 5-year average, but 8.9% below the 10-year average.
• All jurisdictions saw annual increases in new listing activity, with Baltimore County showing the largest increase at 10.5 percent.  All other jurisdictions in the region showed strong single-digit increases in listing activity.

• As of December 31, Baltimore Metro inventories have decreased by 2.6 percent compared to last year to 11,610 active listings.
• End of year inventories are 22.1 percent above the trough of 2012, but are down 33.8 percent from the 2008 peak.
• Supply is 3.5 percent above the 5-year average of 11,216, but 14.9 percent below the 10-year average of 13,642.
• Baltimore City experienced a 2.5 percent increase in inventory to close the year with 3,199 active listings; all other jurisdictions experienced single-digit declines in inventory levels.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for 2015 was 93.7%, down 0.2 points from 2014.
• Over the last decade, the highest average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2006, where it was 96.6 percent; the lowest was recorded in 2011 at 88.2%.
• The 2015 average SP to OLP ratio of 93.7 percent was 1.5 points and 1.2 points above the 5 and 10-year averages, respectively.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 96.2 percent of their original listing price in 2015, the highest in the region.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Baltimore City, where the average SP to OLP ratio was 91.3%.

• Half of the homes sold in the Baltimore Metro region were on the market for 43 days or less, representing an increase of one day versus the median DOM in 2014.
• This was only one week higher than the 10-year low of 36 days recorded in 2006 and 2013, but an improvement of 46 days compared to the peak DOM was 82 days in 2008.
• The 2015 DOM of 43 days is 12 days lower than the 5-year average of 51, and nearly two weeks lower than the 10-year average of 56 days.
• The largest increase in DOM was in Howard County, which saw DOM increase three days to 34, though it remained the county with the lowest level in the region.

About the RBI Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in RBI’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland.

About RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC

RealEstate Business Intelligence, LLC (RBI) is a primary source of real estate data, analytics and business intelligence for real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Monthly reports for all jurisdictions in the MRIS region, along with interactive charts and graphics, can be found at http://www.getsmartcharts.com/statistics. RBI is the only company in the Mid-Atlantic region that provides timely, online access to statistical information directly from the MRIS MLS.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com