Baltimore Metro home sales up over 20 percent in February

Prices unchanged; Inventory declines for 6th straight month

Rockville, MD – (March 10, 2016) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of ShowingTime RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) and is based on February MRIS housing data.

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• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $225,000 was up $5,000 from last month and unchanged year-over-year.  Townhome prices rose, while single-family and condos fell slightly. 
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was more than $567 million, up 21% from last year.
• Sales in February were up almost 21% year-over-year, the 15^th month of double-digit increases.
• The number of new pending contracts set a February record high at 3,523.  January’s decline in the number of new pending contracts was clearly weather-related.
• This is the best February since 2008 for new listings, and continues the trend of increases in new listings seen since April 2013 (except for January’s weather-related decline).
• The number of active listings declined by 5.7%, the sixth month in a row of declining inventory growth and biggest decline since August 2013.  Inventory levels are likely to continue to fall.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale was 92% at the end of February.
• Median days on market for February 2016 was 66 days, down one day from last year.  All jurisdictions either had decreases in or unchanged DOM except for Baltimore City.

• The regional median sales price for February 2016 of $225,000 is unchanged from last year and up $5,000 or 2.3% from last month.  Year-over-year, townhome prices were up 7.3%, while single-family detached and condo prices were down about 1% and 0.5% respectively.
• February prices are 9.6% above the 2011 bottom, but 16.6% below the peak of 2007.
• Baltimore County saw the highest year-over-year appreciation at +7.3% to $214,000.  Baltimore City remains the most affordable location with a median sales price of $82,950. 
• Howard County is the most expensive area in the region, with a February median sales price of $349,730, with prices virtually the same as last year.

• February 2016 sales volume of 2,248 was up 20.8% compared to 2015, and February sales exceeded 2,000 for the first time since 2007.  Townhomes and single-family detached showed double-digit increases in sales volume, while condos remained virtually unchanged.
• The number of closed sales in February was nearly double the 10-year market low of 1,178 seen in February 2009 and only 8.3% less than the previous high of 2,452 sales seen in 2007.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed double-digit gains in the number of sales in February 2016 compared to last year.  Carroll County lead the way with a 31.1% increase.
• Anne Arundel saw the smallest percentage gain in sales at 17%, followed by Baltimore County at 17.6%.

• February 2016 pending sales were 3,523, an increase of 16% compared to last year and up 26.2% compared to last month.
• The number of pending contracts for single-family detached homes rose 13.5% compared to last year, with townhomes up by 17.7% and condos up by 22.1%.
• The number of new pending contracts in February surpassed last year’s previous February high of 3,038 by 16%.  It was more than double the 10-year market low of 1,551 seen in 2009.
• Pending contracts remain comfortably above both the 5 and 10-year averages of 2,794 and 2,405, respectively.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed increases in the number of pending contracts in February compared to last year.  Howard County had the smallest year-over-year gain at 8.8%, all other jurisdictions showed double-digit increases, with Anne Arundel substantially ahead at 27.5%.

• There were 3,988 total new listings added in February in the Baltimore Metro area, which was an 11.8% increase compared to last February, and a 20.6% increase compared to last month.
• The number of new townhome listings increased by 16.1% compared to last year, while condos increased 13.1% and single-family detached new listings increased by 8.7%.
• The February new listing total was 16.3% above the 5-year average and 12.9% above the 10-year average.
• The number of new listings in February was up 37% compared to the market low in 2010, but was 8.9% below the 2008 high.
• New listing activity across the region was up everywhere except Howard County, with Anne Arundel showing the largest gain at 21.1%.

• Active inventories dropped by 5.7% compared to last February, continuing the downward trend in inventory levels that started in September 2015.  Active inventories declined for all property types for the second month in a row.  Inventory levels were also down 3.9% from last month.
• Active inventory of 10,556 listings are 0.8% below the 5-year average and 20.3% below the 10-year average.
• February inventories are 12.2% above the trough of 2013, but are down 40.4% from the 2008 peak.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed a decline in active inventories in February, with the largest being an 11.1% decline in Carroll County and the smallest in Baltimore City of 0.9%.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for February was 92.0%, down just slightly from last year’s 92.1% and up slightly from last month’s 91.8%.
• The February average SP to OLP ratio of 92% is above the 5 and 10-year averages of 91.4% and 90.8%, respectively.
• Over the last decade, the highest February average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2007, where it was 95.1%; the lowest was recorded in 2009 and 2012 at 88.1%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 94.4% of their original listing price in February, the highest in the region, but below last year’s 95.3%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Baltimore City, where it was 87.4%, and also had the largest decline compared to last year’s 90.4%.

• Half of the homes sold in February in the Baltimore Metro region were on the market for 66 days or less, representing a decrease of one day versus the median DOM in February 2015, but up ten days from last month.
• Condos sell fastest, with a median DOM of 47, while townhomes have a median DOM of 62 and single-family detached have a median DOM of 72.
• The February DOM of 66 days compares to the 5-year average of 69 days, and the 10-year average of 80.6 days.
• The median DOM was five days higher than the 10-year February low of 61 days recorded in 2014, but an improvement of 41 days compared to the peak DOM of 107 days in February 2009.
• Median DOM increased by 14 days in Baltimore City to 72 DOM, while in the rest of the jurisdictions in the region they either remained level or dropped.

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About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in RBI’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by ShowingTime RBI, based on listing activity from MRIS.

About MRIS

MRIS is a leading provider of real estate information technology and one of the nation’s leading multiple listing services (MLS), facilitating nearly $51 billion in system wide sales in 2015. The company supports over 45,000 real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland, Northern Virginia, Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia. MRIS provides its customers with a portfolio of best-in-class desktop, mobile and cloud-based technologies to improve the real estate transaction process for both real estate professionals and homebuyers and sellers. For more information, please visit MRIS.com or MRIShomes.com to search for thousands of available homes in the Mid-Atlantic region.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com

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