Baltimore area housing market goes from torrid to merely hot in July

Baltimore Metro median sales price of $270,000 is best price since July 2008; Active inventories and median days on market at lowest July levels of the decade.

Rockville, MD – (August 10, 2017) – The following analysis of the Baltimore Metro Area housing market has been prepared by Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. of MarketStats by ShowingTime and is based on July 2017 Bright MLS housing data.

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OVERVIEW

• The Baltimore Metro area median sales price of $270,000 was up 0.9% or $2,500 from last year but down 3.4% compared to last month. This was the highest July price level since 2008.
• Sales volume across the Baltimore Metro area was $1.1 billion, up 4.1% from last year.
• Closed sales of 3,589 were up 0.8% compared to last year, but down 20.4% from last month.
• New contract activity of 4,050 was at the highest July level of the decade, up 2.5% from last year.
• There were 5,067 new listings in July, up 0.1% from last year but down 13.4% from last month.
• Active listings declined by 13.6% year-over-year to 10,946, the 23^rd consecutive month of declining year-over-year inventory levels and the lowest July levels in a decade.
• The average percentage of original list price received at sale in July was 96.5%, up from last year’s 95.8% but down from last month’s 96.6%.  This is the highest July level of the decade.
• The median days-on-market was 22 days, down from 26 days last year, and is at the lowest monthly level in a decade.

• The July overall regional median sales price of $270,000 is up 0.9% or $2,500 from last year, but down 3.4% or $9,400 from last month.  This is the 17^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases and is the highest July price level since 2008.
• Compared to last July, condo prices were up 3.6% to $216,614 and single-family detached prices were up 1.7% to $343,900.  Townhome prices were down 0.7% to $210,000.
• Prices are above the 5-year average of $263,492 and the 10-year average of $257,246.
• July prices are 20.0% above the 2011 low of $225,000.
• Howard County continues to be the most expensive area in the region, with a July median sales price of $430,000, a 3.6% increase compared to last year. 
• Baltimore City remains the most affordable area in the region, with a July median sales price of $156,300, a 0.4% decrease compared to last year.
• The highest level of year-over-year price appreciation was in Carroll County, where prices rose 8.7% to $320,000.  Harford County saw the largest decrease in prices compared to last year, a 3.0% decline to $245,000. 
• For the year-to-date, all jurisdictions show price increases and the overall regional median sales price has increased 4.0% to $259,900.

• There were 3,589 closed sales in July, up 0.8% compared to last year, but down 20.4% compared to last month.  
• Compared to last year, condo sales were up 2.2% to 371, while single-family detached sales were up 1.2% to 1,993.  Townhome sales were down 0.2% to 1,225.
• July sales were well above the 5-year average of 3,345 and the 10-year average of 2,771.
• July sales were 85.5% above the 2010 low of 1,935 but were 0.9% below the 2015 high of 3,623.
• Howard County saw the largest percentage increase in closed sales (+7.4% to 478). Carroll County saw the highest percentage decline in number of sales (-12.2% to 237).
• For the year to date, closed sales across the region are up 4.7% to 23,863.

• There were 4,050 new pending sales in July, up 2.5% compared to last year, but down 6.1% compared to last month.  This is the highest July level of the decade.   
• The number of new pending condo sales increased 27.0% to 470.  Townhome new pending sales increased 1.8% to 1,425, but single-family detached pending sales decreased 1.1% to 2,155.
• Pending contracts are above the 5-year average of 3,701 and the 10-year average of 3,011.
• The number of new pending contracts in July was 109.4% more than the 10-year market low of 1,934 seen in 2010 and was 2.3% above the July 2015 high of 3,959.
• New pending sales were mixed across the region.  The largest increase was in Harford County (+7.8% to 416) and the largest decrease was in Carroll County (-11.0% to 235).
• For the year to date, pending sales across the region are up 1.5% to 29,498.

• There were 5,067 new listings added in July in the Baltimore Metro area, virtually the same as last year, but down 13.4% compared to last month. 
• New condo listings rose 12.6% to 526 and new townhome listings increased 6.2% to 1,856.  The number of new single-family detached listings decreased 5.8% to 2,685. 
• New listings are above the 5-year average of 4,887 and the 10-year average of 4,557.
• The number of new listings in July was up 46.8% compared to the 2012 market low of 3,452 and is down 2.3% compared to July 2015’s high of 5,188.
• Across the region, the largest percentage increase in new listings was in Baltimore City, where they increased 9.7% to 1,220.  The largest percentage decrease in the number of new listings was in Anne Arundel County, where they declined 7.6% to 1,091.
• For the year-to-date, new listings across the region are up 0.1% to 36,352.

• Active inventories of 10,946 dropped by 13.6% compared to last year, and 1.4% from last month.   Overall inventory levels have declined for 23 consecutive months and are at the lowest July level in a decade. 
• All property types saw declines in Y-o-Y inventory levels, with single-family detached down 16.4% to 6,220, condos down 14.4% to 1,037, and townhomes down 8.2% to 3,688.
• Inventories are well below both the 5-yr average of 12,589 and the 10-yr average of 14,854.
• July inventories are 45.8% below the decade high of 20,197 seen in July of 2008, and are 3.2% below the previous July 2013 low of 11,308.
• All jurisdictions in the region showed declines in inventory levels, with the largest percentage decline of 24.1% in Carroll County to 665 active listings, and the smallest decline of 9.0% in Baltimore City to 3,007 active listings.

• The average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for July was 96.5%, up from last year’s 95.8%, but down from last month’s 96.6%.  This was the highest July level in a decade.
• Single-family detached homes have the highest SP to OLP ratio of 96.7%.  Townhomes and condos both have a SP to OLP ratio of 96.2%.
• The July SP to OLP ratio is above both the 5-year average of 95.4% and the 10-year average of 93.3%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest July average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2011, where it was 88.6%, and the previous high was last July where it was 95.8%.
• Homes in Howard County sold at 97.7% of their original listing price in July, which continues to be the highest in the region.  It was above last year’s 97.0%.
• The largest gap between original listing price and sales price remains in Baltimore City, where it was 94.3%, the same as last year.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in July in the Baltimore Metro region was 22 days, down four days from last year but up three days from last month. This is the lowest July DOM of the last decade.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 21, single-family detached have a median DOM of 22, and condos had a median DOM of 25.
• July’s median DOM of 22 days is well below both the 5-year average of 28 days and the 10-year average of 43 days.
• July’s median DOM of 22 was 42 days less than the peak DOM of 64 days in July 2008 and was four days less than the prior lowest DOM of 26 seen last year and in 2013.
• Baltimore City had the highest median DOM of 28 days, down from 32 days last year.
• Howard County had the lowest median DOM of 16 days, down from 21 days last year.
• For the year-to-date, the regional median DOM is 28 days, down from 36 days for the same period last year.

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About the Baltimore Metro Housing Market Update

The Baltimore Metro Area Housing Market Update provides unique insights into the state of the current housing market by measuring the number of new pending sales, trends by home characteristics, and key indicators through the most recent month compiled directly from Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data in ShowingTime’s proprietary database. The Baltimore Metro Area housing market includes the City of Baltimore, Anne Arundel County, Baltimore County, Carroll County, Harford County and Howard County in Maryland. Data provided by MarketStats by ShowingTime, based on listing activity from Bright MLS.

About Bright MLS

The Bright MLS real estate service area spans 40,000 square miles throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and West Virginia. As a leading Multiple Listing Service (MLS), Bright serves approximately 85,000 real estate professionals who in turn serve over 20 million consumers. For more information, please visit www.brightmls.com.

About Elliot Eisenberg

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is the Chief Economist of GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a firm specializing in economic consulting and data analysis.  He is a frequent speaker on topics including: economic forecasts, economic impact of industries such as homebuilding and tourism, consequences of government regulation, economic development and other current economic issues. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg was formerly a Senior Economist with the National Association of Home Builders in Washington, D.C.   He is a regularly featured guest on cable news programs, talk and public radio, writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70 word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.